{"id":2709,"date":"2026-08-09T10:43:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T14:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/?p=2709"},"modified":"2026-08-09T10:43:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T14:43:46","slug":"prediction-for-below-normal-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/?p=2709","title":{"rendered":"Prediction for below-normal hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the climatological peak of hurricane season approaching in early September, NOAA\u2019s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasters from\u00a0NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service updated today the number of expected named storms to 7-13 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 2-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). These ranges cover the entire season from June 1 through November 30 and are inclusive of the two tropical storms that have already formed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA forecasters predict a 75% chance for below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity. This updated prediction is similar to the initial\u00a0outlook issued in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Atlantic basin, a\u00a0typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2026-07\/2026-Atlantic-Hurricane-Outlook-aug-update.png\" alt=\"A slide with a pie chart of probability and three predicted ranges of the number of hurricanes, major hurricanes and named storms predicted in the Atlantic Ocean as of August 6, 2026.\" title=\"A slide with a pie chart of probability and three predicted ranges of the number of hurricanes, major hurricanes and named storms predicted in the Atlantic Ocean as of August 6, 2026. (Image credit: NOAA)\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Only Gulf storms in the Atlantic Basin so far<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To date, the 2026 season has produced two named tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, and no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Arthur was the first named storm of the Atlantic season. Forming in mid-June in the warm Gulf of America waters off the Texas coast, Arthur brought record rainfall to portions of Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf coast. Bertha also formed in the Gulf, originating south of the Florida panhandle before making landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated,&#8221; said NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. \u201cThat\u2019s why it\u2019s important to prepare for every storm that\u2019s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2026-07\/2026-Atlantic-Hurricane-Names-aug-update.png\" alt=\"The list of tropical storm names chosen by the World Meteorological Organization for 2026, with Arthur and Bertha crossed out in red, as of August 6, 2026.\" title=\"The list of tropical storm names chosen by the World Meteorological Organization for 2026, with Arthur and Bertha crossed out in red, as of August 6, 2026. (Image credit: NOAA)\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Factors influencing the Atlantic hurricane season outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the remainder of the season, tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to be tempered by El Nino conditions, which first emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June. El Nino increases wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from getting stronger once formed. Other less influential factors include temperatures near average in the Atlantic Ocean and a neutral west African monsoon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhen El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Nino continues to get stronger every month,\u201d&nbsp;said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service.\u201cCompared to a mature El Nino, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hurricane outlooks in other ocean basins<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although El Nino tends to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, it can enhance storm development in the Pacific. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season remains unchanged with 15-22 named storms, which is&nbsp;above average. So far there have been seven named storms, of which two became hurricanes, including one major hurricane.&nbsp; An above-normal season is also expected&nbsp;in the Central Pacific basin, with 5-13 named storms and tropical depressions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right has-theme-palette-7-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-e6505172a957c2ec2a126fa1bd1938ca wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: NOAA.gov<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the climatological peak of hurricane season approaching in early September, NOAA\u2019s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains.&nbsp; Forecasters from\u00a0NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service updated today the number of expected named storms to 7-13 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 2-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater),&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2709"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2709\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2712,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2709\/revisions\/2712"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2710"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elwoodweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}